A summit shaped by personal relationships
Several G7 leaders arrived in France facing a challenge that extends far beyond the summit’s formal agenda: keeping President Donald Trump engaged while avoiding disputes over Iran, Ukraine and military spending.
The gathering was once primarily a forum for the world’s leading democracies to coordinate economic policy. Under Trump, however, personal chemistry and direct access to the American president have become central to whether the summit succeeds or collapses into confrontation.
Success may simply mean avoiding a blowup
Former State Department spokesperson Ned Price said diplomacy during the current administration relies heavily on personal impressions and atmosphere.
He argued that expectations for multilateral meetings have fallen significantly, with a successful summit often defined by the absence of a public dispute, an early departure or an attack on social media.
Last year’s walkout remains a warning
The previous G7 meeting offers an uncomfortable precedent.
Trump left the Canadian summit one day early as tensions escalated between the United States, Israel and Iran.
Although Washington and Tehran have now reached a preliminary framework, the absence of a clear path toward a lasting settlement means another Middle East flare-up could quickly disrupt the meeting.
Macron combines ceremony with resistance
French President Emmanuel Macron, who is hosting the leaders in Évian-les-Bains, has developed a strategy of challenging Trump without pushing the relationship beyond repair.
The two men regularly exchange public insults. Trump has mocked Macron’s accent and made comments about his marriage, while Macron recently told an audience in Davos that he preferred respect to intimidation.
Despite those exchanges, they have continued speaking by telephone. Their history also includes private text messages that Trump later made public.
France prepares an elaborate welcome
Macron is placing significant emphasis on the ceremonial side of Trump’s visit, offering the American president an especially prominent reception.
The effort reflects a calculation that personal attention and visible respect could reduce the risk of confrontation during discussions on Iran, trade and European security.
US officials describe Trump’s relationships with the G7 leaders as deep and established, adding that he holds direct conversations with allies behind closed doors.
Carney keeps tensions with Washington contained
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has also maintained frequent contact with Trump despite recurring disagreements between Ottawa and Washington.
Canada’s chief trade negotiator, Janice Charette, said the two leaders communicate regularly through calls and text messages.
That relationship has survived Carney’s appeal at Davos for middle powers to respond to disruptions caused by larger states, remarks widely interpreted as criticism of the United States.
When Washington recently paused its role in a joint US-Canada defense board established during the Second World War, Carney avoided escalation and publicly played down the move.
Takaichi emerges as Trump’s strongest ally
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi arrives at the summit with perhaps the most successful relationship with Trump among the G7 leaders.
Her political image combines the toughness of former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher with a more unconventional motorcycle-rider persona, producing an unusual personal rapport with the US president.
Trump previously praised her as a leader of great wisdom and strength.
Japan may use its influence against China
Takaichi is expected to use that goodwill to seek stronger G7 pressure on Beijing over its campaign of economic coercion against Japan.
China introduced restrictions on exports including rare earth materials after Takaichi suggested that military action around Taiwan could become a threat serious enough to require a Japanese response.
Her pledge to double defense spending has also strengthened her position with Trump, who frequently accuses allies of contributing too little to their own security.
Takaichi survived a disagreement over Hormuz
Japan declined a request from Trump in March to send forces to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, citing constitutional limitations.
The refusal did not produce the kind of public rebuke experienced by other allies, indicating that Takaichi had accumulated enough political goodwill to disagree without severely damaging the relationship.
During the same Oval Office meeting, she also absorbed a joke from Trump about Pearl Harbor without reacting publicly.
Starmer struggles to repair the special relationship
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has had much greater difficulty recovering from his refusal to support the US bombing campaign against Iran.
Trump said in April that relations between the United States and Britain were no longer good, marking a sharp deterioration from the comparatively positive beginning of their relationship.
A European diplomat said Starmer had been burned by the experience, while officials have found it increasingly difficult to engage the White House on other priorities, particularly Ukraine.
Meloni loses her Trump whisperer status
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was initially viewed as one of the European leaders best positioned to influence Trump.
The relationship weakened after she criticized the president’s attacks on Pope Leo XIV during the Iran conflict. Trump responded by complaining that Meloni was no longer the same person.
She is also facing growing pressure at home to stop accommodating Washington as higher energy prices damage the Italian economy and Trump’s defense spending demands appear increasingly unaffordable.
Merz faces consequences after criticizing the war
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also began with a strong understanding of how to manage Trump personally.
That changed after Merz said during an April school visit that Washington had been humiliated in its war with Iran.
Trump repeatedly attacked the German leader over the remarks and soon called for a substantial reduction in the number of American troops stationed in Germany.
Britain hopes Hormuz mission can repair ties
British officials are entering the summit acutely aware of the potential for renewed friction.
London plans to emphasize its leadership with France in a proposed multinational mission to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The British calculation is that visible support for American objectives in the region could improve relations with Trump, even after Starmer’s earlier criticism of the war.
Defense spending remains a likely flashpoint
Trump’s demands that allies spend more on defense are expected to return during the summit.
Japan’s planned increase places Takaichi in a favourable position, while European governments face greater political and financial difficulty meeting Washington’s expectations.
The issue could become particularly sensitive for leaders already managing domestic anger over energy prices, economic weakness and the costs of supporting Ukraine.
The G7 becomes a test of managing Trump
The summit’s outcome may depend less on a common policy declaration than on whether each leader can navigate Trump’s preferences, grievances and rapidly changing positions.
Macron, Carney and Takaichi have found different ways to maintain access while preserving some room for disagreement. Starmer, Meloni and Merz illustrate how quickly a seemingly strong relationship can deteriorate.
With the Iran framework still fragile and another outbreak of fighting possible, G7 allies are preparing for a summit where avoiding a diplomatic explosion may count as the principal achievement.
