Shipping Through the Gulf Route Falls Sharply
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped significantly after renewed exchanges of strikes between the United States and Iran. Maritime intelligence firm Kpler recorded only 23 tankers and cargo ships crossing the waterway on Wednesday, compared with 47 a week earlier.
Three Tankers Hit Near the Omani Route
The latest slowdown followed attacks on three vessels earlier this week. The ships were travelling near a route through Omani waters recommended by the United States. Iran has repeatedly argued that the only “safe” passage is the separate route it has designated through Iranian waters.
A Critical Passage for Global Energy
For decades, ships have moved freely through the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor used for more than one fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies, as well as fertiliser shipments and other essential goods. Before the conflict began, the Joint Maritime Information Center said an average of 138 ships crossed the strait each day.
Conflict Reshapes Maritime Movement
After the United States and Israel launched their first strikes on Iran on 28 February, traffic through the strait fell to only a handful of vessels per day. Iran effectively restricted the passage by attacking ships attempting to cross and laying mines, while Washington responded with a blockade on shipping to and from Iranian ports.
June Deal Briefly Restored Some Traffic
A deal signed on 17 June to end the war included steps to reopen the strait. The United States also agreed to lift its naval blockade and ease sanctions on Iranian oil exports. After the agreement, total traffic initially recovered, reaching a peak of 72 ships on 24 June.
Iran and the US Disagree Over Control
Throughout negotiations, Iran maintained that it had the right to control movement through the strait and introduce fees for ships. The United States, Gulf allies and governments in Europe and Asia rejected that position, arguing that passage must return to the free and open system that existed before the conflict.
Tehran Insists on Its Own Shipping Lanes
After the war-ending deal, Iran laid out lanes through the northern part of the waterway near its coast and said all ships should use them. Following this week’s attacks, Iran’s top military command, Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, repeated: “The only safe route for the passage of commercial ships and oil tankers in the strait is the route determined by the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
Omani Waters Became the Alternative
After the agreement was signed, the Joint Maritime Information Center recommended that ships use a route through Omani waters in the southern part of the strait. Kpler data showed use of that route climbing to 28 vessels on 25 June, surpassing traffic through the Iranian route.
Previous Strikes Weakened Confidence
On 25 and 27 June, two ships travelling in Omani waters were struck. Iran then warned vessels to use only its approved routes. President Donald Trump accused Tehran of a “foolish violation” of the truce and the US military carried out strikes on Iranian targets.
Iran Accuses Washington in Return
Tehran said the United States had violated the interim deal and claimed it struck targets connected to American forces in the region. Traffic along the Omani route dropped after those incidents and continued at lower levels than before.
Latest Attacks Bring Omani Route to a Halt
The attacks on three ships this week have caused traffic on the US-recommended Omani route to collapse. The vessels hit included a Qatar-owned liquefied natural gas tanker, a Saudi-owned crude oil tanker and a Liberia-flagged crude tanker.
No Ships Used the Omani Route on Wednesday
Kpler data showed that no ships used the Omani route on Wednesday, down from three the previous day. In the week before the latest attacks, the route had averaged about 10 vessels per day.
Analysts Expect a Repeating Cycle
Martin Kelly, senior intelligence analyst at EOS Risk Group, said the current escalation may follow a familiar pattern. “There will now be a bit of back and forth between the US and Iran before they make friends again, shipping will peak and trough cautiously until Iran attacks another ship and the cycle starts again,” he said.
What the June Memorandum Said
The memorandum of understanding signed by Iran and the United States on 17 June committed Tehran to use “its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days”. It also said Iran would “conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz”.
Dispute Over the Meaning of the Deal
Tehran has argued that those terms give it authority over the strait. Critics have noted that the agreement did not include a long-term Iranian commitment to free passage. Jennifer Parker, a maritime security expert at the University of New South Wales, said: “The MOU was vague, particularly on issues surrounding the Strait of Hormuz,” adding that “even on a generous reading, it does not permit Iran to attack civilian shipping in Omani waters.”
Mines Continue to Limit Recovery
Concerns about sea mines laid by Iran in internationally recognised shipping lanes have also discouraged traffic from returning to pre-war levels. The risk remains one of the reasons ship movements have not fully recovered, even after the June agreement.
Iran Warns Against Foreign Interference
On Thursday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement through an affiliated news agency declaring that “foreign powers have no claim to this land or to the Strait of Hormuz”. It also warned that “any interference in determining shipping routes” would “provoke a crushing response” and “seriously disrupt the gradual reopening process”.
Trump Says the Agreement Is Over
Speaking at the Nato summit on Wednesday, President Donald Trump said the memorandum of understanding was “over”, though he also indicated that negotiations between Iran and the United States could continue.
Sanctions Move Adds to the Breakdown
Iran has accused Washington of violating the agreement after the United States revoked a Treasury licence that had temporarily eased sanctions on Iranian oil exports. The move has added another obstacle to the fragile effort to reopen the strait.
Washington Faces a Strategic Test
Parker said: “The US had clearly hoped that the generous, some would argue overly generous, financial incentives in the deal would discourage Iran from using shipping in the Strait of Hormuz as leverage. It will now need to rethink that approach.”
She added: “Neither the promise of economic relief nor the threat of military punishment has, so far, changed Iran’s behaviour.
“The challenge remains finding the right balance between the carrot and the stick,” she said.
