Artificial intelligence may help improve renewable energy systems, but new research suggests its productivity gains in fossil fuel industries could lead to higher overall emissions.
AI’s Climate Impact Across the Energy Sector
A new study examining the potential impact of artificial intelligence across the global power sector found that AI-driven productivity improvements could generate more carbon emissions from fossil fuels than the emissions avoided through renewable energy gains.
Researchers analysed 64 different scenarios measuring how AI could improve clean energy production while also increasing efficiency in coal, oil and gas operations. The study found that annual carbon emissions could rise by between 0.47 and 1.8 gigatonnes, representing around 1% to 5% of yearly energy sector emissions.
Previous research has largely focused on AI’s potential climate benefits, including improving renewable energy performance and optimising electricity grids. However, this study highlights the additional emissions created when AI increases productivity in fossil fuel extraction.
Fossil Fuel Productivity Creates Emissions Risk
The researchers found that emissions only declined in scenarios where AI adoption did not improve productivity in fossil fuel industries.
If renewable energy and fossil fuel companies adopt AI at similar rates, renewable productivity gains would need to exceed fossil fuel improvements by at least four times for emissions reductions to offset the additional pollution created.
The study’s authors noted that AI applications in fossil fuel industries are already being deployed at scale, while many renewable energy applications remain in earlier development stages.
Oil and Gas Companies Expand AI Use
Energy companies are increasingly using artificial intelligence to improve exploration, production and operational efficiency. The International Energy Agency estimates that AI could increase technically recoverable oil and gas reserves while reducing the cost of offshore projects.
Companies including Saudi Aramco and Equinor have highlighted AI as a tool for improving drilling operations, analysing geological data and increasing production efficiency.
Research from Rystad Energy estimates that digitalisation and AI could generate hundreds of billions of dollars in value for fossil fuel exploration and production companies through improved efficiency, higher output and shorter development timelines.
AI Data Centres Add Further Energy Pressure
The study did not include the energy consumption of AI data centres in its calculations but found that AI-enabled productivity gains in fossil fuel industries could create emissions several times larger than current estimates linked to data centre operations.
Researchers stressed that the findings are not a precise forecast but represent a structural trend showing how AI adoption could influence global emissions depending on where the technology is deployed.
Climate experts argue that reducing AI’s environmental impact will require stronger limits on fossil fuel dependence and greater investment in renewable energy infrastructure rather than relying only on offsetting measures.
