The amount of oil available to the global market is becoming increasingly limited, industry executives warned at an energy forum in London, raising concerns that tighter supplies could make the market more vulnerable and push prices higher.
Governments and energy companies have drawn from oil stockpiles to reduce pressure on a global market facing major supply disruptions caused by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
“Less than 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories remain today, with the vast majority not practically available, so the system is already straining,” said Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London.
Nasser said more than 1 billion barrels of oil have been released mainly from commercial onshore inventories since the start of the Middle East crisis, describing stockpiles as one of the last major tools available to stabilize markets.
The International Energy Agency, which coordinates strategic oil reserves among Western countries, is preparing to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel to ease pressure from rising fuel prices. However, it remains unclear whether part of that amount includes oil from a previous 400 million barrel release that has not yet reached the market.
“Inventories are reaching a stress level. Only 10% or less is available, that’s why they struggle with 100 million barrels,” Nasser said.
Global oil demand currently stands at approximately 102 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency.
Limited Supply Cushion Increases Market Risks
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said the loss of oil market buffers has made the industry more fragile and increased the minimum price level for crude.
Executives at the conference warned that market volatility could continue beyond next year, as rebuilding inventories may take years while global demand continues to grow.
Not all stored oil can be immediately used due to operational limitations, including oil trapped at the bottom of storage tanks, supplies moving through pipelines, and government requirements for maintaining emergency reserves.
Nasser said there is strong demand worldwide to build additional storage capacity. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation CEO Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah also said the company plans to expand domestic and international storage facilities.
Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said global markets remain dependent on Middle Eastern seaborne oil exports to maintain balance through the winter because Western inventories have limited additional capacity to absorb disruptions.
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories are currently at their lowest level since October 1982, according to Department of Energy data.
Natural gas inventories are also under pressure, increasing the risk of sharp price movements. Petronas CEO Tengku Muhammad Taufik warned that a severe winter could trigger significant stress in the gas market during the first quarter of 2027 if storage levels fall too low.
