Record snow shortages in the West
Last winter saw the worst snow drought on record across the American West, affecting regions from Montana to Arizona. Rapid snowmelt left streams depleted, reservoirs low, and forests primed for wildfires, impacting agriculture, towns, and industries.
Climate change role
Researchers from Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado found human-caused warming made such a drought four times more likely today. By 2050, similar extreme snow shortages could occur every third year, and nine out of ten years by century’s end. The Upper Colorado River Basin faces a 14-fold increase in likelihood.
High-resolution modeling
The study relied on advanced Earth system models and a four-year high-resolution snow dataset. These tools allowed precise simulations of mountainous terrain, snow accumulation, and melt patterns, crucial for understanding extreme drought events.
Observations and impacts
Scientists noted unusually warm winters and rain at high elevations. Early ski area closures and dry forest fuels heightened wildfire risk. Researchers emphasized the need to redefine drought metrics and prepare for more frequent extreme events affecting water supply.
Expert insights
Adrienne Marshall and colleagues highlighted the urgency for water and resource managers. Marianne Cowherd noted the shift in perspective from snow as a nuisance to snow as critical water storage. Stefan Rahimi emphasized that detailed modeling of mountains and snowfall is essential for accurate attribution studies.
